US President-Elect Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to slow the growth of US offshore wind after his inauguration on 20th January. This month, he has also been critical of UK politicians for continuing to support the sector.
But despite Trump’s interventions, there are plenty of opportunities for offshore wind businesses globally, including in Europe, Asia-Pacific, North America and other emerging markets. Annual offshore wind capacity additions are on track to grow from 131GW in 2024 to 182GW by 2028, according to the Global Wind Energy Council, as the industry grows in established and emerging markets.
Here are five trends that will define that will shape business activity in 2025:
1. Responsive governments will be most successful in 2025 tenders
The Danish offshore wind sector faced a tough tender process in 2024 due to insufficient revenue support and uncapped negative bidding, deterring bidders. Successful tenders in 2025 will come from governments that adapt by addressing developer concerns, following examples set by the UK and Germany.
We saw the UK and Germany successfully conclude offshore wind tenders in 2024 because they addressed sector concerns from previous auction rounds, including higher strike prices and greater focus on non-price criteria.
By contrast, Denmark failed to attract bidders for its latest 3GW offshore wind tender in December 2024, which WindEurope put down to its lack of revenue support and its use of ‘uncapped negative bidding’. Lower numbers of bidders was a feature of offshore tender processes in 2024 as developers focused on submitting viable projects, and we expect that to continue in 2025.
As such, we expect the biggest successes where governments prove they are willing and able to adapt their tender processes to take into account business priorities. With lower numbers of bidders, it is vital for that dialogue to continue as it can make the difference between success and failure in a tender.
2. Developers proceed cautiously as US federal pullback looms
As US developers face policy risks, many are delaying projects amid uncertainty around federal support. While state-level backing continues, the industry is in a cautious wait-and-see mode, with some developers committed to long-term projects despite the challenges.
Offshore wind developers have already been delaying projects in the US as the inauguration of President-Elect Trump on 20th January looms large. Trump has pledged to halt offshore wind developments “on day one” of his impending second term, which led TotalEnergies to halt work on its 3GW Attentive Energy project. RWE has also warned of increased risks in the US.
Any slowdown in federal support for US offshore wind will also delay crucial investment in the US offshore wind supply chain, although hope is not lost. We still see support for offshore wind in the US at state level, and we believe there are developers who will be willing to wait it out for four years.
For example, the Equinor achieved financial close in December for its 810MW Empire Wind 1 scheme, including a $3bn project finance package. We expect times to be tough but that some developers will commit long-term to the US.
3. Skills gaps to widen as offshore wind enters new waters
The offshore wind industry is grappling with a growing skills gap, needing over 500,000 new technicians globally by 2028. With expansion into new markets and regions, companies must prioritize workforce development and training to meet the rising demand.
More than 532,000 new technicians are needed globally to serve the offshore and onshore wind sector by 2028, GWEC and the Global Wind Organization have warned; and WindEurope said has said the industry in Europe needed 200,000 new workers over the next six years. In 2025, companies in offshore wind must prepare for these emerging skills gaps, and we expect to see them support efforts by the European Union and UNESCO to fill any shortages.
In addition, we expect broader challenges for supply chain growth in Europe as the industry expands outside its traditional heartland of the North Sea.
This includes more activity in the Baltic, where Poland has been racing ahead; the Mediterranean, where Italy has big ambitions for floating wind and France is seeking to unlock growth in floating wind too; and in waters off the Republic of Ireland. It is up to companies across the value chain to ensure projects can be delivered efficiently and profitably. This will be a key concern in 2025.
4. Asia-Pacific grapples with how to strengthen its supply chain in 2025
Asia-Pacific’s offshore wind potential continues to grow, but regional supply chain limitations remain a key challenge. Countries like Taiwan and Japan are making progress, but stricter local content requirements in other markets call for more collaboration between developers and policymakers.
China will continue to lead the growth of offshore wind globally in 2025, but the industry in Asia-Pacific needs a stronger regional supply chain to reach its full potential. By 2030, GWEC has forecast 122GW of offshore wind could come online, in countries such as China, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam.
It was a positive step for the industry in 2024 that Taiwan loosened strict rules on local content; that Japan has put itself on the cusp of significant growth; and that developers gained support for a first wave of projects in Australia. But we are also seeing that strict rules on local content are proving a challenge for the western developers that are keen to gain a foothold in Vietnam.
Offshore wind companies must work with policymakers to identify and remove roadblocks in 2025. We believe the industry sees the sense in this approach.
5. Floating wind continues to make progress to exit start-up phase
Floating wind is steadily advancing towards commercialization, driven by larger turbines and improved operational strategies. Recent successes in the Mediterranean highlight the potential, but further work is needed to make floating wind scalable and cost-effective.
Viability concerns for fixed-bottom offshore wind farms over the last couple of years have led to high-profile delays at projects, notably in the UK and the US. However, this has also led developers such as Ørsted to delay their plans for floating wind in favour of more established fixed-bottom developments.
In 2025, the industry must continue to progress work that will unlock the use of larger turbines at floating wind farms. The biggest machines could grow from sub-10MW to around 15MW over the next two years, which would support the increased commercialization of the technology. In addition, work must continue to make operations and maintenance programmes at floating wind farms more efficient, including the move towards major component replacements on-site.
In late December, the French government announced that groups led by EDF and Ocean Winds have won the right to develop two 250MW floating projects in the Mediterranean. The industry must build on this momentum in 2025.
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At Shoreline Wind, we look forward to supporting our current and future clients in 2025, whatever the year holds. To request a demo, please contact our team.
